The figures recently released by the Palestinian Bureau of Statistics indicate that almost all foreign trade of 
the Palestinian Authority is still conducted with the Israeli market. Imports to the Palestinian Authority in the last year stood at approximately $4.8 billion, some 70% of which were from Israel. Likewise, exports from the Palestinian Authority, which amounted last year to about $800 million, were for the most part — about 80% of the Palestinian exports — directed to the Israeli market.
The Palestinian government has been making great efforts in recent years to diversify its trade markets and free itself of its almost total dependence on Israel. Thus, it has lately hosted delegations from China and Sri Lanka, which have come to discuss the strengthening of trade relations, and the Palestinian prime minister reports on the tightening of economic relations with Europe.
Who cares about the Palestinians?
Be that as it may, the Palestinian economy is still completely dependent on Israel: About half of the government’s budget comes from the taxes collected on its behalf by Israel. At the same time, Israel controls the Palestinian electricity and water supply systems, as well as the daily supply of basic food commodities. And what’s more, some 150,000 Palestinian breadwinners depend on their work in Israel. The emerging political picture is thus quite clear: they, the Palestinians, cannot hurt Israel, while Israel is in a position to harm them. Or is it really the case?
Although it seems that a new wave of violence is liable to flare up in the West Bank and Gaza, most commentators believe that a third intifada on the lines of the previous ones is rather unlikely. The riots and terrorist attacks of the past were intended not only to disrupt life in Israel, but, first and foremost, to draw the attention of both international and Arab public opinion. At present, however, the feeling in the Palestinian public, as well as the view of its leadership, is that, at least as far as their Arab brethren are concerned, no one cares about them or their welfare anymore. In fact, Arab television channels, which used to air each week dozens of news features and commentaries on the plight of the Palestinians, seem to have forgotten all about them, as habitual followers of the Arab media can testify. Nowadays, they are all preoccupied with the goings-on in Syria, Iraq, Egypt and South Sudan.
Real trouble for the Israeli economy
Once the diplomatic efforts fail (as may well be the case according to the prevailing opinion), the next Palestinian intifada in the offing is unlikely to be of a violent nature. Rather, it is expected to focus on disrupting Israel’s economic relations with foreign countries the world over. The area is ready and set for it. In a talk with Palestinian journalists, it has been noted by the latter that Europe is just waiting for the right signal from them and the Americans to take action and launch a wide, public boycott against Israeli products — and not only those manufactured in the settlements. Indeed, it’s Israeli products in general that are bound to be affected, as Justice Minister Tzipi Livni has already cautioned.
Israel will find it difficult to pressure and suppress the Palestinian economy in retribution for such a global economic campaign. It is quite in doubt whether yet another closure may be imposed or any more barriers erected on the West Bank. Similarly, putting a freeze on tax fund transfers to the Palestinian government or disrupting the power supply would be an improbable move on the part of Israel. Needless to say that Palestinian appeals to international economic or diplomatic bodies would by no means warrant military campaigns on the model of Operation Defensive Shield, conducted in the West Bank in 2002, or Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip in December 2008. In other words, regardless of the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and its dependence on the Israeli economy, it has power enough to cause the Israeli economy real trouble.
* Danny Rubinstein is an Israeli journalist and autor.
